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Thursday, March 24, 2016 - 19:30

China's Economy: Can It Avoid the Japan Trap?

Arthur R. Kroeber, Head of research, Gavekal, Editor, China Economic Quarterly


Embassy of Ireland

3 Ritan Dong Lu

爱 尔 兰 大 使 馆 日 坛 东 路 3 号

Aierlan Dashiguan 3 Ritan Dong Lu


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In the last three decades China has surged from impoverished backwater to become the world's second-biggest economy and largest trading nation. Yet as the recent tumult on global markets shows, China risks destabilizing the world as it makes the hard shift from an investment-driven to a consumer-oriented economy. The headwinds of a rapidly aging population, a battle against rampant corruption and an enormous national debt are also slowing the country's growth. Will China mature into a global economic leader, trigger a crisis, or stagnate like Japan? Arthur Kroeber, one of the world's leading commentators on the Chinese economy, will tackle these tough questions.

Arthur R. Kroeber is head of research at Gavekal, a financial-services firm based in Hong Kong, founder of the China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service, and editor of China Economic Quarterly. He divides his time between Beijing and New York. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, an adjunct professor at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know is published by Oxford University Press in April 2016.